Over this last week and change, there's a sense that Drake could drop ICEMAN before April comes to a close. The odds for this to happen have shot up exponentially on prediction markets like Kalshi, for example. That may not mean much though as well since Drizzy is still keeping a tight lip.
But still, it feels like the album is right around the corner. So, with that in mind, we want to throw out some early predictions for arguably the most anticipated release across all genres this year. Today, we want to focus on first week sales numbers and what a realistic outcome would be.
There are a couple of factors that will play into our guess. For example, as most of you probably know, the rap genre has been struggling commercially. There have definitely been a lot of strong projects over the last few years. But nothing has really latched on for an extended period of time.
Even J. Cole's The Fall-Off feels like it's come and gone to an extent and that's a project that a lot of people were waiting on for several years. Overall, hip-hop just hasn't felt like the "it genre" this decade. Pop and country are the faces of music right now.
Another thing we are taking into account is how Drake has performed in recent debuts on the Hot 200.
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What's The Latest Update On ICEMAN?
His last solo album, 2023's For All The Dogs, moved just a hair over 400,000 copies. While that's most rapper's career bests that's his second worst premiere for a solo LP. It beats out Honestly, Nevermind by just under 200,000 units.
It's not all that surprising though as that's one of if not the most inconsistent album he's put out. Then, there's his joint effort with PARTYNEXTDOOR which moved 246K. This project also has the same issues as FATD but amplified even more.
But if Drake really is delivering some of his best rapping of his career like his fans/insiders say he is, then it could have a chance to do something serious. However, it's hard to look past how the genre as a whole has had a hard time capturing and holding music listeners' attention spans.
With that in mind, we feel there's a good chance ICEMAN fails to reach the level of a Certified Lover Boy or even a More Life. In the end, we could see his 13th overall LP doing anywhere from 300,000-350,000.
As for an update on the album, Drake was recently spotted filming another potential music video. Photo and video show him performing around tons of blocks of ice in Toronto.
