Iowa-Rutgers has hit a historic low for over/under betting lines. After opening at 30, the line now sits at 28. Furthermore, three of the major sportsbooks are reporting that upwards of 80% of bettors are actually betting on the under. For non-bettors, this means that a majority of those betting believe the game will finish with less than 28 total points scored. It's a line the likes of which is not believed to have occurred since the mid-90s.
However, how likely is it that the under will be met? Let's start with offensive production. Iowa is averaging 18.4 points per game, 13th worst in the nation. Rutgers, on the other hand, are averaging a blistering (by comparison) 26.8 points per game. that might make it a foregone conclusion that the over is the safer bet. That is until you consider Iowa's defense. When it comes to points per game allowed, Iowa is fourth-best in the nation. They allow just 13.7 points per game. Furthermore, the Hawkeyes have only scored have not scored more than 10 ten points in each of their last two games. Meanwhile, they their defense has only given up 19 points over the same period. Given Iowa's offensive incompetence and their CFP-caliber defense, 28 total game points is incredibly feasible.
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Oddsmakers Shocked By Iowa-Rutgers Line
"I looked through my database and couldn't find a number in the 20s. I did find 1,500 games over the last five years with higher first-half totals [than 28]," longtime oddsmaker Craig Mucklow said on a Caesar's Sportsbook podcast. "Iowa is the same every week: not really good offense, really good defense. That's a great calculation for unders," added Joey Feazal, who oversees college football lines for Caesar's.
However, what may be even more wild about the betting line is that Iowa has already met it across the past three weeks. Their last three game totals have been 21 (15-6 v Wisconsin), 22 (12-10 v Minnesota), and 17 (10-7 v Northwestern). That's why bettors are hoping that the Hawkeyes can aim low for a fourth week running.
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